Heavy truck sales will fluctuate next year but will not decrease by 50%

Recently, a certain editorial editor of the commercial automobile industry wrote that the sales of heavy trucks will drop by 50% next year. For a time, it attracted the attention of a number of media in the industry and became a topic of discussion after all. However, I believe that this remark is worth discussing.

The first is the interpretation of the policy, the author of the article said "dialectically treat the state's declared policy." On October 21, the State Council Economic Work Conference stated that China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the fourth quarter. In the following 10 days, the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio twice in a row.

It is true that the country’s policies will have a slight or even slight possibility, but this is not an “additional or opposite policy” referred to in the article. This is like a car driving at high speed. The driver is constantly accelerating and stepping on the accelerator. When it reaches the proper speed, it will recover the oil. As long as no braking measures are taken, the car will still maintain a certain acceleration for a period of time because At this point, the traction force of the engine is still, although the acceleration is reduced, the car is still in an accelerated state, so the running speed will still increase in a period of time; even if the acceleration is zero after a period of time, the car will maintain high-speed operation. By the same token, the state's policy is only to reduce the acceleration of economic growth in a timely manner, rather than reduce the growth rate. The purpose is to enable the country's economy to continue to grow steadily rather than stop growing. If we simply regard the increase in the reserve requirement ratio as a “shut-off” behavior, it is prone to interpretation bias, because there are many factors that affect the level of economic development of the country and the rate of economic growth. We cannot just look at certain indicators. What's more, according to the investment of 4 trillion yuan and the draft of the 12th Five-Year Plan, China's economy will continue to grow.

Second, the article also talked about inflation. The author believes that the national measures to curb inflation will indeed affect the sales of heavy trucks, but compared to the economic growth trend and some of the heavy truck companies have a good overseas market resources, the magnitude of the decline in heavy truck sales in the next year can only be described by fluctuations rather than 50. %! Imagine that the heavy-duty truck manufacturing industry is an industry that reflects the level of national heavy industry manufacturing, and the upstream and downstream industries associated with it are all important industries that affect the national economy. In the coming year, the overall market demand will drop by 50%. Doesn't that mean that the industry is going backwards? is it possible?

The author believes that "the sales volume of heavy trucks will drop by 50% next year" cannot be called a viewpoint but a title. At the end of the article, the author stated that "we will continue to analyze why the country has adopted a policy that will make the heavy truck market decline next year." I hope to have a real analysis when it comes, not a gorgeous title.