Fourth Quarter Thermal Power Plant or Large-scale Coal-mining Downtime

As of September 8, Qinhuangdao port coal inventory was 6.958 million tons, a decrease of 329,000 tons compared with the same period last week, which was the first time in about a month and a half to below 7 million tons. In addition, the total coal inventories of (SDIC) Jingtang Port and Caofeidian Port also continued to decline, with a decrease of 559,000 tons and remained at around 11.718 million tons.

While coal stocks have continued to decline, coal prices have risen. According to the data, the comprehensive average price of the Bohai-Sea thermal coal price index broke the 9-week losing streak for the first time, showing a rising trend. On September 9, Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price has reached 830 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the first half of the year and 120 yuan/ton from the same period of last year.

Coal prices have increased and the burden of power companies has increased. The Daily Economic News reporter learned from the Qinhuangdao Coal Network that strong demand has led to a significant increase in the volume of coal refueling at major ports, and the inventory of power plants in the East China and Central China regions has been significantly reduced.

It is understood that on September 20, the Datong-Qinhuangdao railway line will be overhauled for a period of 15 days, with a 4-hour "open skylight" construction. Affected by this inspection, the later Qinhuangdao port coal inventory will be reduced significantly, the port coal supply will tend to be tight.

Coal analysts believe that taking into account the upcoming Daqin Line overhaul, some coal consumption and trading companies have recently increased thermal coal purchases, which has increased the activity of thermal coal market trading, and to a certain extent, reduced the inventory of ports and stimulated them. The thermal coal price rose further.

Reduced coal stocks and higher prices will directly increase the production costs of power generation companies, making it more difficult for companies that have fallen into serious losses to survive.

CEC statistics show that since 2003, the price of coal has continued to rise. Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal coal prices have risen more than 150%, but the sales price increase is only 32%. For this reason, CEC has called for an increase in on-grid tariffs and sales prices to compensate for the gap.

It is understood that thermal power installations accounted for 86.62% of the total installed capacity of Datang Power (601991, SH) in the first half of the company's total operating costs of about 27.806 billion yuan, an increase of 15.33%. Among them, the cost of electricity and fuel was 18.871 billion yuan, accounting for 67.87% of operating costs, an increase of 4.814 billion yuan from 14.057 billion yuan in the same period of last year, an increase of 34.2% year-on-year. Due to the continuous increase in coal prices and the high level of operation, the unit fuel cost increased by RMB 26.83/MWh compared to the same period of last year.

An internal responsible person of Datang Power told the “Daily Economic News” reporter that the increase in coal price had a huge impact on the cost and profit of Datang Power in the first half of the year, with an increase of RMB 4.814 billion in the cost of electricity and fuel costs, of which RMB 2.39 billion was fuel for the unit. The direct increase in costs resulted in a share of 42.4%.

What is more noteworthy is that the situation in Central China and South China, which have long been trapped in electricity shortages, will be even more tense. A power plant in central China complained that it will be very difficult to complete the goal of storing coal in winter this year. In previous years, the power plant could store up to two months of winter storage coal before November. If the coal storage target cannot be completed, it will be very difficult to avoid downtime due to coal shortages during the peak winter season.

According to related analysts from BOCOM International, coal prices will continue to rise in the long run in the context of increasing energy demand.

Coal-fired power plant shutdown or a foregone conclusion An industry official told the reporter that from the current situation, during the peak season of this year, some power plants are out of coal or are down.

Guangxi Nanning's electricity management department has taken measures against power cuts by users who violated the power consumption targets. It also stated that it will further adopt strict electricity disciplines and make every effort to ensure residents' holiday use and livelihood electricity use, so as to ease the current power shortage.

It is understood that since August, the maximum gap in electricity consumption in Nanning reached 800,000 kilowatts. Faced with the severe power situation, Nanning Power Grid adopted various countermeasures for industrial power from stop two to five, stop three to four, and stop industrial production in order to ensure the residents' livelihood and electricity.

In addition, the Sichuan Provincial Electric Power Company issued an early warning on the 10th that it is expected that during the winter and next spring, the electricity load will further increase. The maximum load demand will be close to 26.8 million kilowatts, an increase of 19% over the same period of last year, and will continue to maintain a rapid growth. Due to the shortage of coal supply and less water from hydropower, the supply and demand situation of Sichuan power grid will face the most severe situation in the coming 10 years in the winter and spring, and power grid power supply is inevitable.

The reporter also learned from the Sichuan Electric Power Company that it is expected that the maximum power shortage of the Sichuan power grid will reach 20% in this winter and next spring, with a maximum power shortage of 4 million kilowatts and an average daily power shortage of 80 million kwh. As the rain is relatively dry, the hydropower output will fall further this winter and next spring. In this case, the power supply will mainly rely on thermal power generation, but currently the province's coal supply is still seriously insufficient, and the progress of coal-fired power storage is very slow.

Lin Boqiang (microblogging), director of the Energy Research Center of Xiamen University, said that “through the investigation of provinces lacking electricity, it has been found that thermal power companies in these provinces generally have negative emotions. Because they have serious losses and cannot buy coal, their enthusiasm for generating electricity is seriously frustrated. The price of coal is high, and even if the company has money, it does not dare to save more coal. It often responds by prolonging downtime and reducing the number of hours of power generation."

Some analysts pointed out that if the coal storage capacity of the power plant during the winter peak season is not improved at the end of October, it will be very difficult for the December to March next year.