Construction machinery industry is expected to warm up within half a year

The days of construction machinery companies have not been very good since 2012, and the growth rate of the entire industry has slowed down, once allowing investors to look down on the investment outlook.

Looking back at 2012, negative pressures such as inventory pressure, the sharp increase in accounts receivable, and the sluggish economic environment have been accompanied by the construction machinery industry. For more than a year, although the sound of the industry’s recovery has continued, it has not been able to make it.

However, in the sluggish season, in November, the signs of recovery in the construction machinery industry began to become more clear, infrastructure projects such as new rural construction and high-speed rail projects were about to start, the real estate industry gradually stabilized, and successively increased projects would bring a certain amount of market to the construction machinery market. With the increase in demand, the domestic economy has also begun to stabilize and pick up. Many people in the industry stated that the second half of next year may be the turning point for the construction machinery industry.

"Stable growth" effect shows economic recovery

In the first 11 months of this year, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the country increased by 20.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was flat, but the national real estate development investment was 64.7172 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%, and the increase rate was 1.3% higher than the growth rate. In November, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 10.1% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points higher than that in October, setting an eight-month high. In November, CPI rose by 2% year-on-year, 0.3% higher than the 1.7% increase in October; PPI continued to rise year-on-year. The fourth quarter economy rebounded into a foregone conclusion.

Based on the current domestic and international environment, the economic growth target for the next year will still be 7.5%, changing to “maintain steady and rapid economic development” as “achieve sustained and healthy economic development and social harmony and stability”; maintain continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies and continue To implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, macroeconomic regulation and control must take into account the three objectives of stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, and controlling commodity prices; tapping domestic demand through urbanization, further advancing structural tax reductions, and investment in construction machinery, agricultural machinery, and other industries. Opportunities will increase.

Excavator industry "barometer" was sunny

Since September, real estate sales and new start-ups have shown a bottoming up, real estate development and investment growth rebounded, making sales data improved. In November, China's major excavator manufacturers sold 6,657 excavators, an increase of 12.4% qoq and a decrease of 25.3% year-on-year, a significant quarter-on-quarter increase, and the year-on-year decline was narrowed. Among them, domestic sales were 5,883 units, a year-on-year decrease of 30.2%; export sales were 774 units, an increase of 60.6% year-on-year; domestic sales and export sales increased year-on-year in comparison to October.

This is indeed a great encouragement for the excavator market that has been sluggish since the second half of last year. As the "barometer" of the construction machinery industry, the improvement of sales of excavators has strengthened the confidence of the construction machinery to pick up.

Railway investment growth brings new business opportunities

According to the latest data released by the Ministry of Railways, the railway investment in fixed assets totaled 506.969 billion yuan in the first 11 months of 2012, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year, and 80% of the annual investment plan was completed.

“In 2012, the total scale of railway construction reached 29,000 kilometers, of which 27,500 kilometers were for the continuation of the line and 1,436 kilometers for new lines. In the next three years, there will be 24,000 kilometers for the continued construction of the railway, and a further investment of 15,000 will be required. 100 million yuan to complete the task of continuous construction, with an average annual demand of around 500 billion yuan. In accordance with the progress of the construction of railways under construction in 2012, 25 or more lines will enter the train debugging or line laying stage.” National Development and Reform Commission comprehensive transport related person in charge Zhang Jiangyu said.

With the gradual recovery of railway investment, the performance of construction machinery companies will be strongly supported next year. Products such as earth and stone machinery, road construction machinery, piling machinery and hoisting machinery will be fully developed. At the same time, accessory companies will also face growth opportunities.

Urbanization brings new impetus

On December 4, the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to bring new hope to the construction machinery industry. The meeting will adjust the economic work next year. The meeting pointed out that we must actively and steadily promote urbanization. A series of economic measures have become construction machinery to save the straw. The most attention-grabbing urbanization construction deserves to be a "high-speed car" that cannot be missed by the construction machinery industry.

According to relevant data, for every additional urban resident, the city needs to increase the investment in fixed assets by 500,000 yuan, and by increasing the urbanization rate by one percentage point, the rural population influx into the city will increase by 13 million (calculated by the population of 1.3 billion). Therefore, it will drive 6.6 trillion yuan in urban construction investment.

In 2020, China will have more than 50 cities to develop rail transit, covering more than 7,000 kilometers, covering major Chinese cities. China has now completed and opened more than 1,700 kilometers of urban rail transit. It has approved 34 cities in the near-term planning and construction of a total of 177 projects and 141 routes. The total mileage is approximately 4382 kilometers, and the total investment exceeds RMB 2 trillion. With the construction of rail transit construction projects including Beijing and Xi’an, etc., the market demand for shield machines will enter an unprecedented period of rapid development.

Within six months is expected to warm up

The reasons for the slowdown in the industry are the growth of infrastructure investment, the slowdown in the growth rate of new real estate, and even negative growth. He expects that sales will recover in the next one or two quarters. The logic is that the growth rate of railway infrastructure investment will increase significantly. It is expected that the construction volume will recover in the future. In the future, the development trend of the industry is to reshuffle the market, and the concentration of the industry will increase. The scale profits will be concentrated on the dominant leading companies.

Regarding the impact of urbanization on the industry, Qiu Shiliang believes that the urbanization rate will take a long time to improve. Urbanization is a long process, and urbanization is conducive to the recovery of the industry. However, urbanization cannot be expected to have a large impact on the industry in the short term. He is optimistic about the industry leader in the medium term.

Some netizens mentioned that in the industry, this year's aggressive marketing methods such as "low down payment, zero down payment," etc., will seize the risk of customers. Experts believe that leveraged sales are international and domestic practice. Different companies use different business terms and leverage at different stages. At present, judging the risks of marketing methods, most companies are still in a controllable state. The core competitiveness is products, services, and creating value for customers.

He also said that Zoomlion and Sany Heavy Industry are excellent companies in China and even in the world. The market-oriented competition has created the success of the two companies, and the two companies have therefore significantly distanced themselves from other competitors in the industry. He believes that Zoomlion and Sany will occupy a very important position in the global construction machinery industry. The huge market capacity of global construction machinery is enough for Zoomlion and Sany to achieve great development at the same time. It is looking forward to two construction machinery in China. Leading has become the global leader in the construction machinery industry.

Experts predict that before the two sessions in the first quarter of next year, the market expects that the new government will focus on promoting the upgrading of the economic structure and accelerating the process of new urbanization. The policy expectation and the effect of the government’s change on infrastructure investment will probably drive the construction machinery industry into a round. Strong rebound. Together with the above indications, the second half of next year may be the turning point for the construction machinery industry.