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Recent statistics show that during the first six months of this year, China’s auto exports were 241,000, an increase of 71.2% year-on-year, and the export value was US$2.7 billion, an increase of 110.7% year-on-year. Among export cars, commercial vehicles have become the main force, accounting for 65% of the number of cars exported.
The acceleration of the export speeds of large and medium-sized buses and heavy trucks in the commercial vehicle sector in the first half of the year has not only allowed manufacturers to see a huge global potential market demand, but also felt that the competitiveness of self-owned commercial vehicles is becoming increasingly apparent.
Bus has a huge potential in the international market
According to the data, the number of passenger cars exported in the first half of the year increased by 237.53% year-on-year, and the number of large and medium-sized passenger cars exported was 11,432, an increase of 164.87% year-on-year. The large and medium-sized bus industry is currently dominated by its own brands, and the pattern is relatively stable, with a strong price/performance ratio. Competitive advantage with international competition.
According to insiders, in the next five years, the international large and medium-sized passenger cars will generally maintain a steady growth. Among them, the demand for passenger cars in Western Europe and North America is basically saturated, the demand in Eastern Europe is huge, and the number of passenger car renewal and retention is large, of which Russia is Major markets; strong demand in Asia and Oceania, the fastest growing markets in Africa and the Middle East, will become the region with the largest increase.
For this demand forecast, Shenyin Wanguo Researcher Jiang Xueqing stated that the economic strength of the demanding regions matches the prices of Chinese passenger cars. At the same time, the population of these countries is more in demand for passenger cars. Taken together, the demand for large and medium-sized passenger cars in Asia, Eastern Europe, Africa, and the Middle East is relatively large. The total demand for domestic passenger car companies in Eastern Europe, South America, and other regions is approximately 165,000, and China’s passenger car exports have a huge potential market. She predicts that the total global passenger car demand will reach 250,000 by 2010. With scale and cost advantages, Chinese passenger cars will gradually expand their exports in Eastern Europe, South America, Africa and the Middle East.
Jiang Xueqing believes that the leading companies Yutong Bus and Jinlong Automobile will fully benefit from the growth of domestic and international demand in the industry. Yutong and Jinlong have the potential to become world-class passenger car companies. Guo Jin Securities researcher Li Mengxuan also said that Golden Dragon Motors is the main beneficiary of China's light passenger export acceleration. Its holding company Xiamen Jinlv Haishi series light passengers and body companies producing light passenger cars this year's performance is expected to exceed expectations.
Heavy truck exports to resolve industry cycle risks
Despite the rapid growth of sales of heavy trucks in the first half of the year, the cyclical nature of the heavy truck industry has caused many brokerage researchers to predict in advance that the growth in heavy truck sales will suffer from fluctuations in the business climate.
China International Capital Corporation Wangzhizhi expects that the monthly sales growth rate will gradually decline due to the monthly increase in the base of the same period of the previous year in the second half of this year, and the heavy truck sales growth will show greater volatility. According to Jiang Xueqing’s history of heavy truck sales, 2007 was the second year of the “Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€. Most of the infrastructure investment projects were started in 2007. The start of infrastructure projects also stimulated the sales of heavy trucks, but they support heavy trucks in 2007. Some of the factors that have caused a significant increase in sales will not exist in 2008. Therefore, according to the law, it is expected that the business climate will continue until the end of 2008.
Does the expected end of the economy bring heavy losses to the heavy truck industry? Brokerage researchers are mostly optimistic and believe that exports will be an important growth driver for the heavy truck industry in China.
Wang Zhihui stated that domestic and foreign manufacturers have heavy truck price gaps, and domestic heavy truck prices are only 1/4 to 1/3 of foreign prices. In the global medium and heavy truck production distribution, China accounts for 22%. It is the world's major medium- and heavy-duty truck production base. Can not be underestimated. Faced with a possible downturn in the growth rate of heavy trucks in 2008, Jiang Xueqing believes that leading players in the industry such as Sinotruk, Shaanxi Zhongqi, etc. are still able to maintain growth, and the growth rate of the whole industry is mainly reflected in the decline in the sales growth of some heavy trucks or absolute numbers. Compared with the same period of last year, leading Chinese companies such as China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck, which are more than 15T, can still achieve year-on-year growth in sales volume due to scale advantages and continuous expansion of export scale. When domestic demand weakens, the increase in their export volume will effectively resist the industry cycle. risk.