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Changes in the automobile market structure, the share of commercial vehicles has plummeted
It is understood that the Chinese auto industry started from commercial vehicles, and commercial vehicles have always been the driving force of the Chinese auto market. According to statistics provided by the National Information Center, the average annual growth rate of the domestic commercial vehicle market during the eight years from 1997 to 2004 was 10.5%, which was higher than the growth rate of GDP.
Among them, heavy trucks have grown at an average annual rate of 36.5%, showing an internationally rare level.
Since 1999, commercial vehicles have occupied the vast majority of the domestic automobile market. By 2003, there were 2.149 million commercial vehicle sales nationwide, 1.917 million sedan sales, and 55.1% share of commercial vehicles. In 2004, commercial vehicle sales were 2,744,600, and sedan sales were 2,326.5 thousand. Vehicles and commercial vehicles accounted for 54.12%. However, from January to September this year, the country’s total auto sales were 4,136,200, of which 1,333,300 were commercial vehicles and 2,803,200 were passenger cars, and the sales contribution of commercial vehicles to the automotive market was reduced to 32.23%. The pattern of commercial vehicles leading the Chinese auto market has finally been broken.
Huang Chenglin, director of the management office of Dongfeng Motor Company, believes that this qualitative change means that the overall demand structure of the Chinese automobile market has undergone fundamental changes. He pointed out that with the development of the country’s economy and the continuous increase in residents’ income, overall, the commercial nature of the automobile is weakening and passenger use is increasing. This is also a law of international automobile development and shows that the Chinese automobile market is in the international market. Convergence.
The new car classification indicates the future development trend
Since January of this year, the automotive industry has implemented a new statistical classification. Automobiles are classified into two categories: commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles. Behind these two categories are 9 subcategories and 9 subcategories can be subdivided into subcategories. Passenger cars derived basic models, MPVs, SUVs and crossover models; commercial vehicles derived five categories: freight cars, passenger cars, semi-trailer tractors, non-integrated trucks and non-completed passenger vehicles. Subdivided again, trucks are divided into heavy trucks, medium trucks, light trucks, mini trucks; passenger cars are divided into large passenger cars, medium passenger cars, light passenger cars; semi-trailer tractors with a total mass of 25 tons or less, more than 25 tons less than or equal to 40 tons, more than 40 tons; trucks non-complete vehicles and passenger vehicles are not complete vehicles, but also with reference to the corresponding vehicle is subdivided. As a result, commercial vehicles are subdivided into nearly 20 subcategories.
Huang Chenglin pointed out that the re-division of automobiles precisely reflects the new trend of the automotive market demand and clarifies a brand new market pattern; each small category may be a broad market space, among which there is no lack of business opportunities.
Huang Chenglin believes that although the market pattern of commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles has undergone a fundamental change, the product definition, market positioning, and use value of commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles are quite different, and they are irreplaceable because of the commercial use of the automotive market. The "binary pattern" in which cars and passenger cars go side-by-side will not change.
Grasping the five major changes in the truck market
Huang Chenglin analyzed China's commercial vehicle market from two aspects: cargo loading and passenger loading. He believes that trucks are no longer the traditional heavy, medium and light market division, but the heavy, medium, light, micro, hanging five kinds of market games.
One is that the heavy truck enters the adjustment period. Since 2000, heavy-duty trucks (referred to as heavy trucks) have become the main models driving the surge in commercial vehicles. In 2002, heavy truck sales surpassed China Card for the first time. The development of the entire truck market towards heavy-duty and light-duty has become increasingly clear. In 2004, 370,795 heavy trucks were sold in the Chinese market, an increase of 44.98% year-on-year. The heavy-duty vehicle market has experienced a rapid release for nearly five consecutive years and the market capacity has expanded rapidly. In 2005, under the influence of the national macro-control, fuel price hikes, and limited load control, the heavy-duty truck market experienced the first negative growth in eight years. From January to September, sales fell by 30.39% year-on-year, falling into the adjustment period. Despite this, the heavy-duty truck market still shows its own characteristics: market concentration is still relatively high, from January to September sales of the top six corporate market concentration of 92.28%; heavy truck market emerged, Anhui Valin, Jianghuaigar Manufacturers such as Hair and Hubei Sanhuan are rapidly developing, exerting heavy pressure on the slowdown heavy truck market; heavy trucks have undergone improvements in practicality and comfort, and have entered the luxury stage, with safety, environmental protection, energy saving, high technology, and low fuel consumption. Large-tonnage, high-power, high-capacity, high-end heavy trucks suitable for specialized transportation will become the mainstream of market development.
The second is the bullish outlook for China Card. Since 1997, the China Card market has been in a narrow range of fluctuations, and the total market volume has fallen on the 150,000 vehicles. In 2004, China Card sold 175,644 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 28.79%; in January-August 2005, the total vehicle and chassis sales of China Card totaled 137,639 vehicles, an increase of 25.86% year-on-year. Although it cannot be asserted that the China Card Market has begun to grow up, it can be said that the “cards and mouths†of the China Card Market are being opened, and in particular, the China Card Market has broken the monopoly and its competitiveness has increased. The China Card Industry is an area in which the Chinese auto industry has independent development capabilities. During the “10th Five-Year Plan†period, the market for the China Card did not gradually increase its market concentration as other models, but instead exhibited a fragmentation effect, and the market share was gradually divided. From 12 in 1999 to 18 in 2005, it is expected that in the next few years, there will be many powerful agricultural vehicle companies involved in the China Card and light truck markets. The China Card Market presents a diversified, differentiated and personalized competitive landscape. The western market and the specific regional market are still the focus of competition among the Chinese card companies. Modified cars, special vehicles and special vehicles will occupy an important position in the card market. . The unique characteristics of these medium-sized card markets indicate that China Card is expected to look bullish.
Third, light trucks should not be taken lightly. From January to September 2005, 559,778 light trucks were sold, a year-on-year increase of 6.73%; 77,493 light truck chassis were sold, a year-on-year increase of 55.33%. Not only did sales increase more than heavy trucks and medium trucks, but also the absolute sales accounted for trucks and trucks respectively. The sales volume of truck chassis was 64.69% and 33.14%. Light trucks maintained a certain growth trend in the truck market, and its base remained dominant in the truck market. Because the trend of development of heavy-duty trucks and light-duty trucks will further promote the expansion of the light-duty truck market; light trucks are small in size, flexible in transport, and have obvious advantages in the transportation of a large number of short-distance scattered goods; in order to solve urban traffic and pollution The problem is that the restrictions on medium- and heavy-duty trucks in large and medium-sized cities are increasing, and the demand for high-end light trucks is being promoted; the construction of township roads promotes the improvement of light trucks, in particular, the country’s mandatory scrapping of agricultural vehicles and the requirement for emission standards, so that the low-end light truck market Potential is expected to be released. The light truck market will have a diversified demand, and regional demand for high, medium, and low-end product demand will change, and the adjustment of light truck product mix will be promoted.
Fourth, the micro card is not weak. In 2004, the country sold 171,451 micro-cards, an increase of 24.96% year-on-year, and its sales and increase were almost equivalent to those of China Card. From January to September 2005, 160,440 micro-cards were sold, an increase of 13.68% year-on-year; 7,455 micro-chassis chassis were sold, an increase of 113.26% year-on-year, and the highest increase was in the sales of trucks and chassis. Obviously, minivans are not weak, but there is considerable market space, especially the lower price and flexibility of transportation, and they have the market advantage of replacing agricultural vehicles. From the development trend, mini-trucks may become another market after the light trucks, which can be used for heavy trucks.
The fifth is that "semi-hanging" still needs "care." Semi-trailer tractors refer to commercial vehicles equipped with special devices for hauling semi-trailers. From January to September 2005, the country's semitrailer tractors sold 41,569 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 46.04%. Among them, 401 models with sales of less than 25 tons were sold, down 89.23% year-on-year; sales of 25-40 tons were 28,859 units, down 6.36% year-on-year, and sales of more than 40 tons were 8,689, down 2.04% year-on-year. Despite severe market setbacks, semitrailer tractors still have their own specific market space. With the development of highways, ports, terminals, and logistics, they will develop toward specialization and large tonnage.
Huang Chenglin believes that as a means of production, trucks have a strong correlation with the growth of GDP. At present, the number of trucks loaded in China is 10 million. According to China’s economic growth rate, the number of loaded trucks will remain 10 years later. At least a two-fold increase now. He predicted that from the general trend, consistent with economic growth, China's trucks are expected to continue to grow for 10 years.
The bus market is tepid in the hidden business opportunities
When analyzing the passenger car market, Huang Chenglin said that in the past three years, affected by the combined effects of highway extension, bus priority, train acceleration, and macro-control, the passenger car market is in a tepid and steady growth. In 2003, the number of passenger cars sold nationwide was 1,207,800, a year-on-year increase of 15.15%; in 2004, sales were 1,217,700, an increase of 5.12% over the same period of last year. From January to September 2005, passenger car and chassis sales decreased by 1.46 percent year-on-year. Regrettably, experts such as the warming of the tourism market, the promotion of public transport priority policies, and the growth of rural passenger transport are expected to form a hot spot in the passenger car market. However, they have not yet formed. The passenger car market is undergoing a severe test.
The main reasons leading to the downturn in the passenger car market are: ticket discounts, train speeding up, heavy impact on road passenger traffic, and the formation of customer competition; highway construction has a certain pull on the large passenger car market, but with the increase of private cars, causing Loss of tourists; city buses are relatively solidified, inter-city passenger transport network is basically complete, and the number of passenger cars is limited; there is no policy support for the “village-passenger bus†pilot, and the passenger car market has been weak.
Huang Chenglin pointed out that with the continuous growth of large passenger vehicles, some dominant companies have begun to adjust the product structure based on large passenger vehicles. This may allow companies with increasing strength to “make†a part of the market for customers. Who can get this space, still? It depends on the company's competitive strength and marketing capabilities. According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the young passenger market in 2002-2003 showed a significant growth trend, which began to fall in 2004 and fell to flat in 2005. Lightweight passenger vehicles have the advantage of being light and flexible, inexpensive, high-quality, low-cost, and fast return on investment. They should have a certain market space. As long as they actively promote product upgrading, they are expected to open up new edge products.
Huang Chenglin believes that the two-pole development of trucks, the market game of heavy, medium, light, and hanging, the gentrification of highway buses, the enlargement of bus, the expansion of brand image, the diversified and differentiated market demand, export capacity and The expected increase in scale will all bring unlimited business opportunities to China's commercial vehicle market.