The pace of development of high-speed rail industry or face adjustment

The “7.23” car rear-end incident caused a great uproar in the capital market. On the 25th, the stocks involved in the high-speed rail concept were almost “wrecked”. A number of experts interviewed by the "Economic Information Daily" said that the incident will prompt China to reflect on the progress of high-speed rail construction and future planning. The entire industrial chain of the high-speed rail will be deeply affected.

The first trading day after the “July 23′′ bus crash after the sudden “South-North Vehicle” increase occurred, the A-share market gave a very sharp reaction: On Monday, the two cities fell unilaterally, and the stock index plunged 82.04 points. The fall was 2.96%, which broke through 2700 points, and Shenzhen Component Index fell 3.13%. All the stocks involved in the concept of high-speed railways have experienced sharp or even panic-like crashes.

As of the close on the 25th, in the huge number of high-speed rail concept stocks of A-shares, China Southern Locomotive and China North Locomotive, which were involved in the production of EMUs, fell sharply by 8.90% and 9.69% respectively; China Railway Group and China Railway Construction, which involved in the construction of high-speed railways, fell. 5.71% and 5.91%; Jinyi Industrial and other stocks involved in the production of high-speed rail parts fell below the limit... "Almost all stocks affiliated with high-speed rail fell sharply." One analyst said.

On the evening of the 25th, sci-tech, Jiaxun Feihong, and Century Real were involved in clarification announcements involving communication signals and monitoring systems. Brilliant Technology said that its centralized railway signal monitoring system "has nothing to do with this car accident." Jiaxun Feihong said that it provided the "scheduled communication system and emergency rescue command communication system for the Shuwen Line." Century Riel also stated that the railway communication monitoring system and railway comprehensive video monitoring system provided by the company are "normal in operation."

However, Zhao Xiao (microblogging), a researcher of Century Securities's machinery equipment industry, told the reporter of the "Economic Information Daily" that "the slump of high-speed rail stocks is a short-term over-reaction of the market." Investors' psychological factors dominated the plunge of the market that day.

The plunge of high-speed rail stocks also added a lot of uncertainty to the plans for the addition of China South Locomotive and China North Locomotive. On August 5, 2011, China South Locomotive will hold its second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in 2011 to discuss the proposal of the company's non-public offering of A shares. According to the plan, China South Locomotive will issue 1.827 billion shares to the CSR Group and the Social Security Fund at a price of 6.02 yuan per share, raising 11 billion yuan of funds. The CNPC announced additional issuance plan shows that the company intends to raise 10.24 billion yuan from CNR Group, institutional investors and natural persons at a price of RMB 6.10 per share. As of now, the prices of CSR and CNR have dropped to RMB 6.04/share and RMB 5.87/share respectively. "According to the current prices, the increase in the price of the two major groups is not attractive to the organization," said one analyst.

In fact, in order to boost stock prices, the controlling shareholders of China South Locomotive and China CNR have successively increased their holdings of the company’s shares in July this year. Analysts generally believe that it is the institutions behind the increase in holdings of the two major group controlling shareholders. The reality of investors' enthusiasm for participation in their private placements is not high.

Ask whether natural disaster or man-made disaster?

On July 25, the "Economic Information Daily" published a report on the "July 23" train rear-end accidents to be solved, which raised some questions about the accident. As of the press release, “July 23′′, a special major railway accident on the Wenzhou-Wenzhou railway line has caused 39 deaths. The Ministry of Railways has not yet clarified these questions. In a further interview, the reporter found that many experts were generally shocked by the accident. However, they all pointed to the quality and management of equipment and considered it a "man-made disaster."

Li Zhonggang, secretary general of the China Railway Safety Committee, told reporters from the Economic Information Daily that existing railroads are divided into many block areas. If the front block is occupied by a car, the track circuit will display a red light, and the rear train will see a red light. The lights will not enter. If the train forcibly enters, the vehicle's automatic parking device will stop automatically. Traditional automatic blocking devices on existing lines can completely prevent rear-end collisions, while high-speed rail devices are better than existing lines.

"It may be a problem with the signal system," Li Zhonggang said. Lightning protection expert Guan Xiangshi believes that it is not difficult to find out the effect of a lightning strike on the July 23 accident because there will be traces after the lightning strike and the time and place of the lightning strike can be detected. China Railway Electrification Bureau group chief engineer Shan Sanxiong also told the “Economic Information Daily” reporter that even if it was struck by lightning, there should be electricity on the contact network, otherwise the D 301 car could not be driven, and the biggest cause of the “23 May” accident may be It is a signal system failure.

Yu Ding, CEO of China Railway Network, said that in recent years, the construction of high-speed rail is too fast and the construction period is too tight. Therefore, there is a great difficulty in quality control, and there is a phenomenon of winning the lowest price in the tender, which is easy for individual companies. To win bids by unscrupulous bids, bidding below the cost and below the supply price. If this happens, the quality of the material may cause problems. A signal design chief engineer said that the accident should be caused by the superposition of several factors, and unless the automatic train protection system is removed manually, no rear-end collision will occur. If the automatic train protection system is not manually removed, it may be the cause of the equipment.

“Whether it is caused by a lightning strike that causes the vehicle to stop, or the communication signal is not fed back to the road dispatching station, or if the driver of the vehicle ahead did not manually respond to the operation procedures to avoid or minimize the accident loss, the '7.23' accident should be It's a 'man-made disaster'," Yu Ding said.

Wang Mengshu, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and a professor at Beijing Jiaotong University, said that the main cause of the accident may be the inability of China's railways to fully manage their railways. The first is the shortage of rail transport talent. In general, a qualified high-speed train driver needs to train for at least 3 to 5 years, but now the situation is a serious shortage of railway drivers. Followed by the relatively low salary of railway workers, the railway sector is difficult to retain high-quality talents, and the working environment of train drivers has not significantly improved. Third, the current three-level management system affects the quality of management. The current three-level management system of the Ministry of Railways, the Bureau of Railways, and the stations and divisions can easily lead to excessive concentration of management and lead to difficulties in management.

Prospects of high-speed rail industry, rhythm or temporary adjustment According to the data previously released by the Ministry of Railways, during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, the total scale of China’s new construction of railway construction will reach 30,000 kilometers, and railway investment will be 2.8 trillion yuan. According to the statistics of the media before this, in the tide of this railway construction, there are more than 30 listed companies participating in sharing the huge business opportunities. In short, with the huge investment, high-speed rail has formed a huge industrial chain.

However, the occurrence of the "7.23" train rear-end event is facing the uncertainty of the future development of this huge industry.

“The Wenzhou train rear-end collision accident will further attract the attention of the society and trigger the society to review and reflect on the construction and development of high-speed railways, especially the construction progress and safety of high-speed railways,” said Zhang Yuande, senior researcher at Founder Securities Machinery.

"Before the mature operation of the technology is fully tested, it may further slow down the construction progress of the high-speed rail and reduce the mileage of the planned construction; the operational reliability and stability of the safety-assist system exposed by the accident may require some systems to be redesigned and modified. It will have a profound impact on the relevant manufacturers, at the same time or it will postpone the process of localization of key systems and core components; slow down or delay the completion of related projects and opening time, delay the procurement of relevant equipment and systems.” Zhang Yuande said.

A number of experts told the "Economic Information Daily" reporter that it is time to reflect on China's current high-speed rail construction and the construction speed of high-speed railways should slow down. Li Xuerong, a Chinese investment adviser, also believes that railway investment may slow down due to the July 23 accident. She believes that the current debt ratio of the Ministry of Railways is relatively high, the Ministry of Railways' profits have not risen sharply, and capital expenditures have risen sharply.

According to public statistics, on the 21st, the Ministry of Railways issued a one-year, 20 billion yuan short-term accidental bid for high-credit-grade accidents, which eventually had to be underwritten by the lead underwriter. As of the end of last year, the total debt of the Ministry of Railways totaled 1.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 45.14% year-on-year; the debt-to-equity ratio was 57.44%, up 4.38 percentage points year-on-year.