400 billion school bus market ready to go

On March 28th, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council presided over a State Council Executive Meeting to review and in principle pass the Regulations on the Management of School Bus Safety (Draft). Premier Wen pointed out that we must pay close attention to improving the school bus standards, do a good job in school bus design, production, transformation, equipment and other work, and establish a corresponding management system.

For the introduction of the new school bus policy, industry insiders generally believe that bus companies this year may benefit from the school bus market facing explosive growth.

400 billion cakes to be divided

According to statistics from relevant agencies, the number of primary and secondary school students in China is about 230 million. According to an average of 35 seats per vehicle, about 1 million school buses are needed to satisfy the market. At present, there are only 100,000 school buses in China, only about 10,000 cars that meet the standards, and only 0.12 cars for thousands of students. Based on this speculation, the potential market demand for professional school buses in China amounts to 400 billion yuan.

In fact, under the influence of public opinion and policies, the school bus industry war has quietly started. Yutong Bus, SAIC Commercial Vehicles MAXUS Chase, Huanghai Bus, Jianghuai Bus, Zhejiang Youth Car and other domestic mainstream school bus manufacturers have taken actions to seize the big cake in the future school bus market.

“In the next ten years, professional school bus products will open up new space for growth for the passenger car industry.” Orient Securities pointed out that due to the lack of national supervision, improper operation mechanism, and lack of purchasing power, the current domestic professional school bus product has a negligible amount of inventory. Non-professional school bus products have caused an endless number of vicious traffic accidents that have caused heavy casualties during the operation.

It is reported that the school bus accident in Zhengning County in Gansu Province last year caused heavy casualties and adverse social impact. After the accident, all provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities across the country have established a provincial-level special inspection task force. The students have started the special supervision of traffic safety. All localities conducted inspections according to local conditions and developed school bus safety improvement measures.

Orient Securities expects that the advancement of these rectification measures is expected to drive the establishment of a safe and standardized school bus operation mechanism, and is expected to drive the professional school bus market into an explosive growth period.

At present, in the domestic school bus market, Yutong, Chang'an and Dongfeng school buses rank the top three in the market. The top ten companies on the school bus accounted for 89% of the total market, among which the top three companies accounted for 52% of the total market.

Orient Securities believes that the implementation of the "School Safety Regulations" will rapidly release the demand for specialized school bus markets. The explosive growth of the school bus market has not only rapidly expanded the size of the passenger car market, but is also expected to boost passenger car prices in the short term. The profitability of the bus industry is expected to re-enter the stage of rapid growth.

According to Guojin Securities, because of its public welfare nature and financial subsidies and government procurement, the school bus market will have a strong “transportation” feature. In the long run, according to the share of the bus market, the company’s demand for beneficiary bus demand is more feasible. Yutong and Jinlong two leading companies are expected to obtain the largest number of school bus orders and benefit the most; if starting from the impact on the company's performance, the Huanghai, Ankai, Yaxing and other bus sales account for higher corporate profits may be more significant .

Ping An Securities pointed out that the growth of school bus sales has boosted the growth of the passenger car industry, and the Yutong school bus market share has remained above 40% for two consecutive months. From January to February, the passenger car industry sold 32,000 passenger cars of all types, which was an increase of 4.7% year-on-year, mainly due to a substantial increase in the sales of school buses. From January to February, the sales volume of school buses was 4577, accounting for 14.2% of the total sales of buses. The special school bus market has basically taken shape. The school bus market share of Yutong Bus remained at 40% or more for two consecutive months, while the order of school buses from other bus companies was not stable enough. Yutong has an obvious advantage in the school bus market.

Open new growth space for passenger cars

Industry sources pointed out that for countries such as the United States, Japan, and other school buses that are widely promoted, it can be found that successful school bus operation management mechanisms rely not only on the safety of the school bus itself, but also by a strict driver selection system and exhaustive Laws and regulations, and strong financial support support the integration, so the determination of the state functional departments to implement will become the key to the success of school bus operators in China.

“The announcement of school bus-related regulations shows that the government pays full attention to student traffic safety issues.” Cui Dongshu, deputy secretary-general of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association, told reporters that local governments may increase relevant budgets and the school bus market is expected to usher in Important development opportunities.

According to media reports, under the central push, the importance of school bus safety issues has reached an unprecedented height, and the demand for school bus purchases has also exploded.

For example, the first officially announced school bus program in Shandong Longkou, last year invested more than 170 million yuan to purchase 50 school buses; at the beginning of this year, Gansu Qingyang also invested 9.8 million yuan to purchase 40 school buses. Recently, the Chongqing Municipal Safety Supervision Bureau also revealed that it will launch 3,000 safe standardized school buses during the year.

“Each government at various levels will increase financial support, or it will promote explosive growth of the school bus industry.” According to Wu Wenchao, an analyst at Guojin Securities, school bus manufacturers face not only eventual opportunities but the overall environment of the industry. Great improvement.

“We believe that the passenger car market will increase by 12% this year. Among them, the increase in school bus sales will contribute 4 percentage points.” Guo Zhenqing, secretary general of the China Road Society Bus Division, estimated in an interview with the media that the demand for school buses in China is around 1 million. .

Zhen Zhenqing revealed that according to market research, the demand for school buses in each county is about 300-500 vehicles, and there are about 2,800 counties (cities) in the country, with a total demand of 1.5 million vehicles.

Gao Hesheng, deputy director of the China Automotive Research Center, also stated that at present, there are 90 million students in China who need to ride a school bus. The market capacity of specialized school buses will exceed 1 million, and the annual demand for updates will also reach 150,000.

Statistics from the China Bus Statistical Information Network show that in the first two months of this year, 4,577 school buses were sold nationwide, accounting for 14.22% of the total sales, which was basically in line with expectations. Judging from the average sales price, the cumulative sales of school buses in the first two months were 730 million yuan, and the average sales price was 159,400 yuan per vehicle.

Up to now, there are nearly 200 school bus products in more than 40 companies on the market. With the release of demand, bus companies and products entering the product announcement will continue to increase. “This is an opportunity that school buses bring to the bus industry, but there are also risks.”

Zhen Zhenqing pointed out that the published "Regulations" did not give specific technical standards. He suggested: "It will be a good choice to set strict school bus standards and control the proliferation of school buses by raising the barriers to entry."