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As a truck industry that is more sensitive to the macroeconomic environment, it is particularly affected by macro-control in the adjustment of national industries. So what macro policies will the truck industry be affected by in the coming period? Recently, the reporter interviewed relevant experts on these issues.
Truck industry will be more affected by national policies and regulations
"Medium and heavy trucks are playing an important role in various economic construction activities of the country; light trucks are involved in the 'three rural issues' that the State Council has been working hard to solve, and are closely linked to the vital interests of the majority of farmers, so the future of the truck industry is affected. The influence of national policies will inevitably become more apparent.†Xu Changming, director of the National Information Center, believes that the trend affecting the truck industry in the future will come mainly from policies in two major areas: the medium and heavy truck market will be affected by the work of the government in the future. For medium and heavy trucks, light trucks are more affected by environmental standards.
According to the state's super-adjustment plan, 2004 is a phase of “focusing on governance, opening up the situation, striving for understanding, and exploring experienceâ€. The year 2005 is a period of “consolidating the results, strictly controlling according to law, focusing on breakthroughs, and effectively promotingâ€. Since 2006, it has been transferred to a new stage of “emphasizing source control, strengthening law enforcement, perfecting monitoring networks, and establishing long-term mechanismsâ€. Therefore, overtaking work will be a key work item this year and even in the coming years.
Regarding how long it will continue to rule out overwork, Xu Changming believes that in accordance with foreign experience, we usually adopt a gradual approach to governance and will continue for 8 to 10 years, so in the coming years, our country will The ultra-superior work will not stop, and the intensity will continue to increase. The medium and heavy truck market will inevitably be affected and adjusted by this policy.
In comparison, light trucks are more susceptible to environmental emissions standards. According to the national timetable for environmental protection regulations, China will implement the Euro III standard in 2008. In 2010, it will be largely in line with international regulations. Xu Changming analyzed that in the next few years, the major domestic cities will continue to follow up the implementation of Euro III emission standards for light vehicles in Beijing and Shanghai, and the “Euro III†will be the “admission ticket†for light truck companies entering the city. . While increasing the investment in environmental protection and energy conservation, companies must inevitably increase product allocation. This will directly increase the cost of each light-duty truck company, which will further affect the profitability of the entire industry.
In addition, relevant experts believe that automobile crashes, auto credits, car recalls, auto 3C certification, brand monopoly, especially over-limit overloading, and directory management policies will also have a certain impact on the survival and market development of light truck companies.
Four major determining factors support the healthy development of the truck industry
In an interview with reporters, we learned that the sound development of the truck industry in the future will be driven and supported by the following four factors.
First of all, the steady and steady development of China's per capita GDP will provide a strong guarantee for the truck industry. According to statistics, for every 1% of GDP growth in China, the demand for heavy trucks will increase by 16%; for every 10 billion yuan increase in fixed investment, 15,000 heavy trucks will be added. Experts expect that the national economic growth will still be able to maintain an operating level of more than 9% from 2006 to 2010. According to the country’s macroeconomic situation, it will create a favorable economic environment for the development of the truck industry.
Secondly, the addition of China's basic investment and the pace of road construction in the next few years will promote sales in the truck market. It is reported that during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, the country will accelerate the development of the western region and rejuvenate the old industrial bases in the northeast, and increase the investment in infrastructure construction, which will bring about the development of hydropower, oil fields, highways, railways, and real estate development. The increasing demand for trucks in areas such as urban transportation and environmental protection projects will undoubtedly bring new development opportunities for trucks. In addition, in the future, China will also strengthen the development of highway construction in the central and western regions, the construction of rural highways, and the construction of highways. Trucks as cargo delivery vehicles will have a broader market in this area.
Once again, the Road Traffic Safety Law is implemented to increase the management of overloading and overloading. In the "National Surveillance Points for Supervising Work in 2006", it has been pointed out that this year's overstepping work must completely solve the "big tonnage" problem of vehicles, continue to crack down on illegally refitting vehicles, regulate vehicle production management, and strengthen the management of vehicle licenses. According to industry insiders, in the long run, the relevant national laws and regulations will help promote the long-term healthy development of the heavy-duty truck market.
In addition, it cannot be overlooked that the construction of new rural areas will promote the potential of the rural market, which has huge purchasing power. At present, the increase in the use of agricultural vehicles and the restrictions on roads have led some users to select light trucks as their means of production. In the future, replacing low-end light trucks with agricultural vehicles is a general trend. Therefore, low-end light trucks will be the main growth point for light trucks in the rural market, and the urban-rural junction is an important battle for light truck companies.
There are still uncertainties in the truck market
Of course, Xu Changming believes that in the next few years, the trend of the truck industry will also fluctuate due to the influence of several major uncertainties.
First of all, the size of raw material prices is still uncertain. As raw material prices continue to rise, truck manufacturers are unable to digest them. In addition, technological R&D investment continues to increase, and production and maintenance costs continue to increase, resulting in continuous increase in vehicle prices (such as ABS brake system price increase, multi-axis price increase). Increase in the cost of user purchases; coupled with the continuous rise in the prices of consumables such as oil and rubber at home and abroad in recent years, resulting in rising prices of diesel (gas) oil, tires, etc., increasing vehicle maintenance costs, resulting in increased user operating costs, making consumers Consumption investment in the heavy-duty vehicle sector has decreased significantly.
Second, the time for the recovery of auto consumer credit is still uncertain. If domestic banks do not resume consumer credit for commercial vehicles, the sales of trucks will be greatly hindered, because the credit crunch of auto consumption has led to a noticeable drop in the proportion of users who use loans to buy cars.
Finally, the increase in fuel prices is uncertain. Rising oil prices will increase operating costs, which will also lead to fluctuations in truck sales.